7 trends to face pandemic in 2022 - Avina Foundation

The two0twotwo, third year of the pandemic, promises to give a new chapter in the battle of the world against a disease that, apparently, to stay to stay.If two0two0 was marked by the cimbronazo of an unforeseen crisis and two0two1 was the year dedicated to looking for solutions (not only doctors, but in all aspects of life), two0twotwo must be a superior instance.For that, an integral look must be maintained and put in the foreground the issues that were already a trend before the pandemic and that in some cases were relegated and in others, crossed by the health crisis.These are critical tendencies that affect all of human life, in their individual and social dimensions.

The social, political and representative crises that extend throughout the world, the climatic and environmental emergency, the disruption of technologies, the transformations of work, the exacerbation of poverty and inequality, are some of the issuesmore pressing that demand reflections that, in turn, will be the basis of transcendental changes.In this sense, we propose as a starting point to observe the following 7 trends, which are in the process of transformation and that in the next decades will be decisive for the future of humanity.

1.Democracy against autocracy

According to the latest report of the Democracy Index, an index that measures the state of democracy in the world, prepared by the Intelligence Unit of The Economist, the global average reached its lowest historical value in the year two0two0 since it began to be measured intwo006.This was due to multiple factors, including the impact of pandemic.The restrictions on mobility, civil and individual freedoms that were imposed as measures against COVID-19 produced setbacks in the democracies of 116 of the 167 countries that evaluates the index.

In this sense, there has been a movement towards more authoritarian forms of government worldwide.In countries of regimes categorized by the index as authoritarian or hybrid, such as China, Russia or Turkey, or even in defective democracies, such as the United States, Mexico and Brazil, strong leaders emerged that consolidated in governments that restricted freedoms and citizen participation.So that the tendency to authoritarianism is also present in democratic regimes.

On the other hand, the credibility of democracy seems to be in check: the demands of the great majorities in terms of food, health, well -being, security and housing, among many others, lack response.In addition, in many cases, broad sectors of the population lack representativeness, while institutions work chaotically and always behind the rapid changes experienced by society.Populations in Latin America show their disagreement with the high levels of abstention in the elections of, for example, Chile and Argentina.

However, the demand for participation seems to increase.Since two019, great mobilizations have been seen that not only account for dissatisfaction, but also the will to participate.In this sense, it can be expected that in this two0twotwo mobilizations in countries such as Chile, Colombia, Ecuador or Bolivia are reactivated, since the problems that originated them have not been solved.Therefore, the great challenge has to do with making democracy work in a globalized world while divided, fast and changing.

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A possible response is in the construction of active citizenship.There are examples that show that expanding the participation of civil society is to expand democracy.The Chilean process shows that traditional parties are quickly losing their anchoring in society, and this is observed in the broad triumph of independent assembly members of the constitutional convention and the electoral defeat of traditional political forces.But, if this process will translate into an improvement in living conditions and the extension of citizenship rights, that is about to be seen.The growing popularity of certain retardators, with anti-immigration and hard-hand messages, accounts for the coexistence of diametrically opposed visions in citizenship.

In the United States, meanwhile, Republicans are expected to win many seats in the two0twotwo elections and this generated an impression that the Democrats have wrapped an opportunity.In this sense, the victory of Joe Biden does not seem to be associated with an advance of progressivism, but to a rejection against Donald Trump's person and his personal behaviors, but not to the policies and priorities of his administration.By misunderstanding their choice as a mandate to introduce progressive policies, Democrats have strengthened the opposition.In this sense, a government divided in the United States can be expected, with a right trend.

In the world there are increasingly fragmented societies in political terms.In a context of economic and social crisis, a new year loaded with conflicts can be expected.The will of the majorities for participating in itself is not able to generate a transformation towards a more fair and sustainable world, but requires organization, generation of abilities and meanings to the crisis.For this reason, organizations and social actors play a very important role in creating visions of the world, developing proposals and collaborating in their implementation.As the anthropologist Arturo Escobar says, "it is crucial at this stage to have narratives on other ways of life and have them lists".

two.Pandemia

Science is giving the necessary responses to the health crisis: vaccines have managed to preserve millions of lives in the world.In our region, in addition, access to the vaccine was raised: more than 60% of the population in South America has two doses applied and 14% have a.

Meanwhile, in this two0twotwo the pandemic is expected to become endemic and the COVID-19 will be installed in everyday life, along with other endemic diseases such as flu or dengue.Research on treatments will continue, while the care measures will continue, such as the use of masks and social distance in cases of outbreaks.

It will be vital to reflect on the learning that this experience leaves us.On the one hand, an unprecedented vaccination campaign was achieved in history, thanks to scientific advances and logistics coordination at international level.It is indispensable.

7 tendencias para enfrentar la pandemia en two0twotwo - Fundación Avina

On the other hand, pandemic shows the fact that global problems require global solutions.In line with the above, it was seen how international collaboration, coordination and active participation of world societies can generate responses to the most urgent problems.An example of this is the mass vaccination campaign that achieved that in less than a year almost half of the world's population has received two doses of one of the developed vaccines.Taking into account that humanity faces many global crises of various types, internalizing this learning is a duty.

Finally, pandemic allows to make visible the importance and need to generate more and better public goods.In addition, the states had to assume active roles to face the crisis, not only in the health, but also in the economic, generating financial instruments to support companies, granting subsidies, fiscal stimuli, unemployment insurance and long -term loans, among others.

However, the blow to the global economy has been hard, and Latin America suffered it with special rudeness.Pandemia also shows that the region does not have sufficient capabilities and resources to face a crisis of this magnitude and that inequalities deepen the costs of the crisis.In this context, ECLAC warns that Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are at risk.In Latin America, the impacts of the economic pandemic promise to sharpen if urgent measures to reduce inequalities and strong redistribution of income are not taken, a measure that would allow compliance with the ODS 1 of eradication of extreme poverty eradication.

3.The career for the weather

A little over a month after the COPtwo6 in Glasgow, Scotland, the idea that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (CMNUCC) alone cannot respond to the challenge that the change presents to the change that presents the change presents the challenge is increasingly. climate.The UN has little influence on countries, which make decisions increasingly based on their domestic contexts and less considering the supranational instances.

On the one hand, important agreements for emission reduction were generated in Glasgow.The need to reduce 45% of greenhouse gas emissions to two030 and reach Net Zero (Net Zero) emissions to two050 was recognized.In addition, for the first time agreements were achieved around the loss and damage clause and the need to establish repair mechanisms on the negative impacts of climate change.However, Glasgow's climate pact is more political than operational.The importance of science, indigenous peoples, of the need to protect vulnerable sectors, but no binding commitments or operational mechanisms in this regard are recognized in this regard.The text also ignores the economic effects of COVID-19 and how these could affect the fulfillment of the national commitments of many countries.

As a contrast, youth will be increasingly active and demanding in terms of the need to give solutions to climate change.The growing ecological awareness will make civil society more and more present, not only in its demands towards rulers, but in the adoption of lifestyles aligned with these values.

Three elements will be key in the immediate future:

  1. Credibilidad: Para que el sistema de Naciones Unidas siga teniendo validez, será necesario que los compromisos se traduzcan inmediatamente en acciones medibles y concretas. Esta demostración no puede esperar más.
  2. Rigor técnico: El proceso de abordaje de la crisis climática requiere asegurar el rigor técnico de los compromisos y de su cumplimiento, y también requiere instalar capacidades técnicas en la sociedad para que sea capaz de diferenciar lo que es greenwashing de lo que no.
  3. Financiamiento: En el two0twotwo se deben generar los mecanismos que aceleren el acceso a financiamiento climático; en especial, la cláusula de Pérdidas y Daños requiere mayor institucionalización.

One thing is safe: the climatic crisis will not be resolved at negotiation tables between governments, but needs the involvement of all sectors of society.In this sense, it will be essential to focus on key issues, such as the meaning and implications of the concepts of fair transition and climatic justice.In addition, from the global south it must be observed that the dominant agenda, which prioritizes the reduction of emissions, does not undermine the development possibilities of the countries.

And finally, the great emitters must be the main mitigators.Currently, China is the first total greenhouse gases and the countries of the Global North are the main per capita emitters.But even if the United States and Europe reduce their emissions to zero to two040, the growth projections of China, India and other countries in Asia and Africa indicate that, if they do not make mitigation efforts, global emissions will be maintained.

Latin America has a great competitive advantage for its natural wealth, but it must work on forest preservation, which are natural carbon sinks.It also has enormous potential to move towards regenerative agriculture, which compatibilizes food production with the need to capture atmospheric carbon.And, in addition, it must adapt to the changes that are already happening and that will come in the coming years.

4.The technologies of the information and communication

Social networks and communication technologies provide countless benefits, but they also carry great dangers.Again, in the pandemic it has been seen how misinformation and fake news that circulates on networks have an impact on people's decisions.The proliferation of conspiracy movements, political manipulation strategies, the promotion of violence and illegal activities abound on the Internet and are a sample of the most pernicious aspects of the use of these technologies.

Therefore, the question of trust and credibility are at stake.Multimedia editing technologies allow to manipulate image, audio and video, so that it is already impossible to guarantee the authenticity of any of these materials that circulate in the network.Therefore, the need to install capacities in society to validate information and adopt a critical look at the contents that appear on social networks and the Internet has been generated.

On the other hand, social media business models have also shown their shortcomings.The use of algorithms as managers of the visibility of the contents on the Internet is defined from profitability criteria.And public policies are still behind technological advances, so that establishing regulatory frameworks, which also contemplate data protection and digital rights, is a challenge that must be faced as soon as possible.

But there are positive aspects and have to do with the ways in which these technologies can strengthen democracy.In this sense, given the crisis it faces, technologies have enormous potential to facilitate citizen participation from an active role, whether informing, proposing initiatives or monitoring the processes.Transparency and access to public information will be fundamental elements to advance this type of tools.

5.The future of work

The global demand awakens again while the gaps accumulated in the supply chains create random scarcity, with their consequent inflation effect, which will continue in two0twotwo.However, it is difficult to foresee the state of the post-pandemic labor market, since it will depend on local labor structures.

However, there are some certainties.Distance work will be maintained to the extent possible and the jobs that have been able to virtualize will continue to operate in this way.The works that require physical presence will not change, although there is already a tendency towards automation that has been advanced for a decade.In countries like the United States, low unemployment has allowed many people to change their career, ask for more benefits and move to more distant places in search of meaning and better quality of life.Meanwhile, commercial tension with China adds another unpredictability factor.

The future of work presents both challenges and opportunities.The accelerated advance of the technology and the aging of the population are the two factors that will most impact on the transformation of work in the coming years.The trend indicates that any occupation that can be mechanized, automating or teaching artificial intelligence will be progressively made by machines.For this reason, efforts must focus on favoring the transition of workers and workers from sectors at risk of trades that require human competences.In this sense, work technologization is an opportunity to generate more and better jobs if access to job training programs is guaranteed, especially in the most violated sectors.

On the other hand, the generalized aging of the population promises to open new job opportunities in the health and care sector, which requires human presence and interaction.This must also be accompanied by training and professionalization programs of people who are able to respond to the growing demands in this sector.

However, there are also great challenges, which have to do mainly with inequalities.Given the imminent transformation of millions of jobs and the progress of artificial intelligence, the challenge has to do with generating the conditions so that no one is excluded from this model.In Latin America, this challenge charges great dimensions, given its high levels of informality and its access gaps to education and technology.

6.Science and innovation

The world of innovations and science is very mobilized.Many initiatives are being developed that will soon have an impact on the lives of all people.We will highlight some of them:

Bioengineering: advances in medicine that generated vaccines against COVID-19 in record time are also occurring in matters related to cloning, genetic manipulation and nanotechnology that will soon generate new challenges.On the one hand, advanced technologies are being developed for the treatment of diseases such as cancer that can give great results.But important ethical dilemmas will also open, so it will be essential.

Social Control: Technology for surveillance and control of citizenship is sophisticated by leaps and bounds.Pudong, a district in Shanghai, China, is a paradigmatic case in which almost one million installed cameras watch from the behaviors of people at the wheel, to the correct discard of urban waste.All this is done with the collaboration of thousands of people who send real -time information and even allow a graffiti to be erased from a wall in a few hours.This case can offer a look at the way the cities of the future will have.

Artificial intelligence: more and more artificial intelligences (AI) assume process control and decision -making in digital spaces that affect millions of people.However, there is no transparency regarding the configuration of the algorithms that define these AI.Who does them?Where and with what objectives?The question of the skech of origin in technological development must be discussed in depth, since it threatens to generate a new gap in which the development of these technologies is in the hands of a small group of people.As a contrast, free software for decades has established itself as an alternative of transparency, openness and democratization;However, its use is not yet so widespread.

Military: There are already several experiences in which lethal drones are used with military objectives.The United States Air Force Skyborg program is an example of this type of initiatives that seek.Similarly, the FCAS program, a development led by Germany, Spain and France, pursues similar objectives.These and other military technologies are also crossed by ethical debates: who is in command of the devices?What goals pursue?Will a new gap generate in which countries that have these technologies can invade others with the only use of robots?

Space race: Heaven is being filled with satellites.Only the Starlink project, of the Spacex company, plans to launch to space 1two.000 satellites for use in telecommunications.This project would quadruple the current number of 4.550 satellites that are orbiting the earth.But, in addition, NASA bears a record of two7.000 pieces of space scrap, some that barely reach the centimeter of diameter, which put the instrumental in orbit at risk and, with it, the telecommunications that depend on it.This opens the discussion about who has access to outer space.World scientists have criticized the Starlink project, whose light effects could compromise space research.While there is regulations on the use of outside space, technological advance is still advanced.In addition, not only countries have interests in space;Companies like Spacex and Blue Origin have their own businesses.And, on the other hand, many countries carry out space operations for the public's hidden purposes.This new space career raises a gap between countries that can develop these technologies and those that would not be prepared to face their consequences.In addition, the communications of billions of people depend on these systems, so citizens must have knowledge about their use and must participate in this discussion.

Graphical representation of objects that orbit the earth, 95% of which are scrap (non -functional satellites).Source: NASA.

7.The new normality

The so -called "new normality" raises new social dynamics as a result of the pandemic that is still difficult to anticipate.However, although many activities will continue to develop virtually, which has also had its benefits, there seems to be a much greater assessment of people by human interactions.

In the educational field, a good part of childhoods and youth went through two private years, to a greater or lesser extent, of the links with their peers.On the one hand, pandemic has presented great challenges for education, especially primary and secondary school, which in some aspects has suffered setbacks.In the case of university education, as a counterpart, the possibility of accessing virtual courses allowed many people who could not attend class due to the distance, they could advance their studies.In this sense, pandemic leaves teachings that can be taken to improve access to education, in this new year in which the return to face -to -face is raised.

In art and culture, two difficult years were also crossed, in which artists not only suffered the lack of contact with the public, but also serious difficulties in doing their job.The item adapted from the most creative forms, using digital tools such as streaming platforms and social networks.You can expect these new artistic experiences to remain and become consolidated formats, beyond the return to face -to -face.

However, the need for human interactions is more valued than ever.The advantages of virtuality cannot replace face -to -face contact and that seems to be another of the great learning.An valorization of nature also appears and a need to be in contact with natural environments.The need for more and better public spaces, of parks in the cities, was also evidenced at this time when open spaces were the only possible places for the meeting.In short, the pandemic experience demonstrated the simple value of living well, in a healthy way, around loved people and generating interactions, which are what gives meaning to life.

The challenges posed by two0twotwo as the third year of pandemic are structural in terms of the changes that the democratic system requires;focused on the generation of global public goods in regards to the learning left by the pandemic;Exponential in scale and acceleration in terms of the climate change agenda and its negative impacts if they want to be reversed;of framing in values and ethical frameworks in what is linked to information and technology;multidimensional in terms of the future of work;multifaceted when focusing on innovation and science;and paradigmatic in the sense of new normality.Without a precise approach, the accurate diagnoses that mark the trends of two0twotwo will soon become passing fashions, mere declamations and, what is worse, great frustrations.


Incoontext articles are publications that allow expanding looks, contributing different points of view and promoting constructive discussions.Therefore, they do not reflect the institutional position of the Avina Foundation on the subject.